Bottom of the eligible list. This tract passed Lens A's 6-mile
filter — there's no UMC nearby — but it scores in the bottom of the
prospectus. Driven by flat or shrinking population over the last 5 years; a sparse Protestant footprint within 15 minutes; a demographic profile that doesn't match the formula's bilingual / young-family weighting (older, higher-income or low Hispanic share); low population density (≈2,000–3,500 residents).
Opportunity score
10
rank 32 of 33
Population
2,048
5-yr 3.1%
Score breakdown
| Component |
Weight |
Score (0–100) |
What this measures |
| Growth | 35% |
27 |
Historical 5-yr ACS population change + TDC 2030 projection. |
| Gap | 30% |
87 |
Inverse Protestant saturation within a 15-min drive. |
| Fit | 20% |
28 |
Bilingual + under-18 + inverse-income (working-class young families). |
| Density | 15% |
6 |
Current population — sanity check against tiny rural tracts. |
Map
The red star marks the anchor tract. Other tracts within ~12 miles
are shaded by their own 5-year growth rate. Existing UMCs (any conference) appear
as blue church markers.
Reading this page
- "Cluster anchor" means this is the highest-scoring tract in its
cluster — a tract plus its adjacent qualifying neighbors. Cluster size
1.
- The 6-mile filter is intentionally generous (a meaningful inflection
point in the data). It excludes tracts already inside an existing UMC's
natural reach.
- "Score" is a percentile-rank weighted average of four components.
Tunable in
config/scoring.yaml; this page reflects the
current weights (35/30/20/15).
- This is a structural indicator. It can't see church planting
economics, leadership pipelines, denominational fit, or the dozen other
factors that decide whether a plant takes root.