Caldwell County watch

Mission-field Study · ministry priority: Hispanic/Latino + Black · Download filing PDF ↓

Watch county. Caldwell sits just below the 50,000 urban threshold on ACS 5-year (tract sum) — verify trigger against annual OSD list (47,184 people, growing 14%). Confirm against the current Office of the State Demographer list before treating a Caldwell property sale as urban — it is close enough that it may already qualify.

1 · Demographic Profile of the Mission Field

Population

47,184

11 census tracts

5-yr growth

14%

+5,832 people · proj. 10%

Hispanic

56%

15,464 Spanish-speakers (5+)

Black

non-Anglo total 61%

Under 18

23%

Median income

$72,515

population-weighted

Fastest-growing neighborhoods

Tracts with fewer than 1,000 residents five years ago are excluded here so a handful of new residents can't read as a four-figure growth rate.

Place	5-yr growth	People added	Hispanic
Caldwell County (rural)	164%	3,226	58%
Caldwell County (rural)	67%	2,717	84%
Caldwell County (rural)	30%	684	22%
Caldwell County (rural)	22%	938	48%
Lockhart	22%	831	58%

2 · Feasibility — mission, plants & ministries

6 Rio Texas North District UMCs serve this county — 3 of them reach non-Anglo communities (0 Hispanic-led, 0 Anglo+Hispanic ministry, 3 Black-led).

That is roughly 1 church per 7,864 residents against a mission field that is 61% non-Anglo.

3 tracts (14,729 people) have no UMC within a 15-minute drive; the average tract is 3.7 mi from the nearest UMC.

Highest-opportunity neighborhoods

Composite of growth (35%), church-saturation gap (30%), demographic fit (20%), and density (15%), 0–100, scored across every tract in the county. ◆ marks tracts that also clear Lens A's 6-mile-from-any-UMC plant filter.

Place	Opportunity	5-yr growth	Pop	mi to UMC
Caldwell County (rural) ◆	75	67%	6,744	7.9
Caldwell County (rural)	69	164%	5,199	4.8
Caldwell County (rural)	66	22%	5,225	4.9
Lockhart	60	22%	4,641	1.2
Caldwell County (rural) ◆	58	30%	2,940	6.8
Lockhart	57	14%	5,844	1.3

Existing North District UMCs in Caldwell

Church	City	Serves
Corinth UMC	Dale	Black-led
Fentress UMC	Fentress	Anglo
St Marks UMC Lockhart	Lockhart	Black-led
First UMC Luling	Luling	Anglo
William Taylor UMC	Luling	Black-led
Prairie Lea UMC	Prairie Lea	Anglo

3 · Proposed Restrictions & Priority for Proceeds

The mission field is 56% Hispanic — proceeds should give highest priority to Hispanic/Latino ministry, new Hispanic church starts, and bilingual outreach. The Black population (4% of the field, +69% over five years) supports a Black-ministry priority — note the Plan's caution that the legacy footprint of historic Black UMCs does not track where the Black population is growing today.

20% of net → Conference Trustees' Property Administration Fund (capped at $400k).

75% of the remainder → North District Strategy Team (≈ 60% of net), restricted to: Hispanic/Latino + Black ministry in the Caldwell County urban mission field.

25% of the remainder → Conference Office of Congregational Vitality & Development (≈ 20% of net), restricted to urban ministry conference-wide.

Proposed restriction language for the District Strategy Team to adopt or amend: "These funds derive from the sale of urban church property in Caldwell County and are restricted to vital urban ministry that reaches the diverse people of that mission field, with highest priority to hispanic/latino + black ministry, new church starts, and missions — per the Rio Texas Urban Ministry Strategic Plan." If the property was a former Rio Grande Annual Conference congregation, add the Latino/Hispanic highest-priority restriction the Plan requires.